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Individuals who visit natural spaces weekly, and feel psychologically connected to them, report better physical and mental wellbeing, new research has shown.
Alongside the benefits to public health, those who make weekly nature visits, or feel connected to nature, are also more likely to behave in ways which promote environmental health, such as recycling and conservation activities.
The findings of the study, published in the Journal of Environmental Psychology, indicate that reconnecting with nature could be key to achieving synergistic improvements to human and planetary health.
The study was conducted by researchers at the University of Plymouth, Natural England, the University of Exeter and University of Derby, and is the first to investigate -- within a single study -- the contribution of both nature contact and connection to human health, wellbeing and pro-environmental behaviours.
The findings are based on responses to the Monitor of Engagement with the Natural Environment (MENE) survey, commissioned by Natural England as part of DEFRA's social science research programme. The team looked at people's engagement with nature though access to greenspace, nature visits and the extent to which they felt psychologically connected to the natural world.
Lead author Leanne Martin, of the University of Plymouth, said: "In the context of increasing urbanisation, it is important to understand how engagement with our planet's natural resources relate to human health and behaviour. Our results suggest that physically and psychologically reconnecting with nature can be beneficial for human health and wellbeing, and at the same time encourages individuals to act in ways which protect the health of the planet."
Marian Spain, Chief Executive of Natural England added: "It's a top priority for Natural England to unlock the potential of the natural environment to help address the challenges we are facing as a society: poor physical health and mental wellbeing; the climate change crisis and the devastating loss of wildlife.
"These findings give vital new insights of the need to not just increase contact with nature, but about the sorts of experience that really help people build an emotional connection, which is key to unlocking health benefits as well as inspiring people to taking action to help their environment. We look forward to using the research as we work with our many partners to support more people from all walks of life to benefit from thriving nature."
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Materials provided by University of Plymouth. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.
Judy Shelton has had a decades-long affinity for the gold standard, but she’s been downplaying that since President Donald Trump nominated her to the Federal Reserve Board. She slammed low interest rates for years, but now she supports Trump’s view that rates should be cut to zero. And she has abandoned her view that the central bank shouldn’t try to cater to financial markets.
With all these gyrations, one question looms for senators now that Shelton is coming up for a confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday: Which Shelton will show up?
“A lot of things have been attributed to Shelton,” said Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.). “So, where is she today?”
Trump's nomination of Shelton comes after he has spent more than a year bashing the central bank for not lowering interest rates enough to spur faster economic growth. An ally like Shelton, with her recent embrace of low rates, could be more sympathetic to his wishes.
Shelby was among a number of Republican senators on the Banking Committee who signaled a willingness this week to support Shelton but suggested that she needs to clarify where she stands on those and other policy issues. These include questioning the basis for the Fed’s independence from political influence — often regarded as a pillar of the central bank’s credibility — and calling for the abolition of federal deposit insurance for banks.
Shelton, an author with a PhD in business administration, will face a delicate balancing act as she attempts to persuade lawmakers that she isn’t going to use her perch at the central bank to advocate for the gold standard — a policy Shelby referred to as monetary “shackles” — and that she is sufficiently independent from the president. If confirmed, she would have a seat on the Fed until 2024.
Trump’s previous Fed picks Herman Cain and Stephen Moore flamed out in the GOP Senate in part because some lawmakers were uneasy about their close political ties to the president; the central bank is designed to be insulated from short-term politics so it will act in the long-term interest of the economy.
Shelton’s doubts about the central bank's need to operate without influence from politicians could raise similar alarms. “I don’t see any reference to independence in the legislation that has defined the role of the Federal Reserve for the United States,” she said last year, according to a transcript of a private interview available to clients of the Swiss bank UBS.
While for years she slammed low interest rates for punishing savers and rewarding wealthy investors, she now supports cutting rates, which are near historic lows. And she once criticized the central bank for “appeasing financial markets” but last year said the Fed shouldn’t “pull the rug out” from investors.
Shelton did not respond to a request for comment on this story.
Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.), for one, is brushing off any concerns and said he has no objection to confirming her.
“I had a good visit with her about her previous discussions and so forth, and I thought she understood her role,” he said, including that senators intend for the central bank to be politically independent.
Rounds said he had also pressed Shelton about her support for tying the dollar’s value to gold “and that’s not necessarily her position today.”
Indeed, Shelton told POLITICO last year that it was “wildly off-the-mark to suggest ... I am itching to return to the gold standard or some other radical proposal,” suggesting she was instead seeking “incremental change.”
“She understands this is working,” Rounds said of current Fed policy. “She likes the direction that we’re going, and I actually had a very good discussion with her on the issues, and I did not feel that she would be out of step with the rest of the board.”
“The fact that she has looked at and contemplated several different approaches shows that she has been open-minded, and I don’t think she will be a disruption,” he added. “I think she will be a team member, but she most certainly has the ability to ask questions and to offer different alternatives, so as far as I’m concerned, I think she’ll be a good addition to the board.”
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said he was pleased with answers she had given him privately about her commitment to pursuing good policy over partisan politics.
“She answered my questions to my satisfaction in the office,” he said. “We’ll see how she responds in committee.”
He also said that while Fed independence is important, “there are some opportunities for the Fed to be a bit more accountable to Congress than they are today.”
Democrats on the committee will likely criticize her over 2009 comments in which she said she was “so tired of the criticism … of Wall Street greed” as the cause of the 2008 financial crisis. The government “had much more to do” with causing that catastrophe by distorting risk in private markets, she said.
They are also expected to zero in on her call to end federal deposit insurance, a cornerstone of the financial system since the bank runs of the Great Depression. She argued in her 1994 book, “Money Meltdown,” that “government should not intervene in that private business activity.”
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) slammed Shelton in a six-page letter last month, in which she said the nominee had a “history of inaccurate and radical statements.”
If she is confirmed along party lines, Shelton would be the only sitting member of the central bank board who didn’t receive at least 60 votes. All but one of the five current board members were appointed by Trump.
Still, not every lawmaker will be focused on her previous statements.
“My questions will be driven by long-term systemic challenges to employment in our nation, which will be the gig economy and technology,” Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) said. “I’m not asking about the challenges that others have raised about what she’s said in the past.”
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NASA's Cassini spacecraft captured this view of Saturn's largest moon, Titan, with Saturn's rings in the foreground. (NASA/JPL/Space Science Institute)
Saturn's most Earth-like moon looks a bit less likely to host life, thanks to quantum mechanics, the weird rules that govern subatomic particles.
Titan, the second largest moon in our solar system after Jupiter's Ganymede, is unique in two ways that have convinced some researchers that this moon might host extraterrestrial life: It's the only moon in our solar system with a dense atmosphere, and it's the only body in space, besides Earth, known to definitely have pools of liquid on its surface. In Titan's case, those pools are frigid lakes of hydrocarbons, closer to the gasoline in a car than the oceans on Earth. But some researchers have suggested that complex structures could arise in those pools: bubbles with special properties that mimic ingredients found to be necessary for life on our planet.
On Earth, lipid molecules (fatty acids) can spontaneously arrange themselves into bubble-shaped membranes that form the barriers around the cells of all known life-forms. Some researchers think this was the first necessary ingredient for life as it formed on Earth.
Related: 9 strange scientific excuses for why humans haven't found aliens yet
On Titan, researchers have speculated in the past, an equivalent set of bubbles might have emerged, these consisting of nitrogen-based molecules called azotosomes.
But for those structures to arise naturally, the physics has to work just right in the conditions actually present on Titan: temperatures of about minus 300 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 185 degrees Celsius), without liquid water or atmospheric oxygen.
Previous studies, using molecular dynamics simulations — a technique often used to examine the chemistry of life — suggested that such bubble structures would arise and become common on a world like Titan. But a new paper, published Jan. 24 in the journal Science Advances, suggests that those earlier simulations were wrong.
Using more complex simulations involving quantum mechanics, the researchers in the new paper studied the structures in terms of their "thermodynamic viability."
Here's what that means: Put a ball at the top of a hill, and it's likely to end up at the bottom, a position of lower energy. Similarly, chemicals tend to arrange themseIves in the simplest, lowest-energy pattern. The researchers wanted to know whether the azotosomes would be the simplest, most efficient arrangement for those nitrogen-bearing molecules.
Titan represents a "strict test case for the limits of life," the researchers wrote in their paper. And in this role, the moon fails. Azotosomes, the simulation showed, just aren't thermodynamically viable on Titan.
This work, the researchers said in a statement, should help NASA figure out what experiments to include on its Dragonfly mission to Titan, planned for the 2030s. It's still theoretically possible that life emerged on Titan, the researchers said in the paper, but such life would likely not involve anything we'd recognize as a cell membrane.
Originally published on Live Science.
Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker (1) drives around Golden State Warriors forward Marquese Chriss (32) during the first half of an NBA basketball game, Wednesday, Feb. 12, 2020, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Matt York)
PHOENIX — On a night where the full attention in Phoenix Suns land shifted to Devin Booker potentially getting the All-Star nod he so richly deserves, they also played a basketball game.
And they won it, 112-106, over the Golden State Warriors on Wednesday night.
Booker had 27 points, five rebounds, eight assists, two steals and a block. As usual, Booker needed to do most of the heavy lifting, but the Suns did get some nice contributions elsewhere.
“I’m just glad we won the game,” Williams said, a fitting answer given how the game not only ended but played out as a whole.
The Suns controlled it from the jump, leading 12-3 early. Even that soon in the game, though, Golden State quickly responded with a 10-0 run and continued to hang around despite fielding a very undermanned roster.
Phoenix was up 10 after the first quarter, eight at halftime and 11 after there quarters. With just over six minutes left, the Warriors cut it down to five, and that’s when any full fourth quarter rest for Booker went out the window.
Booker did his best to take advantage of heavy defensive coverage and the Suns on both ends did enough to beat the league’s worst team that turned the ball over 22 times.
“Devin does what Devin does,” Williams said of Booker’s performance.
Kelly Oubre Jr. was 5-for-16, consistently looking unsure of his plan off the dribble and taking a whole lot of jumpers, which included 10 three-pointers.
His 15 points, though, were the high mark beyond Booker. Fortunately, seven of the nine Suns players that attempted a three-pointer converted and the team shot 37.8% on ’em as a whole.
They got some key bench contributions too on both ends, which is how we get to Booker having the only positive plus-minus of the starters and being all the way at plus-17.
“I was really excited about Jonah’s impact on the team,” Williams said.
If you’re thinking, “Jonah? Who?” don’t feel dumb. Center Jonah Bolden, a former Philadelphia 76ers second-round pick, was signed by the team an hour before tip-off, with the news being reported earlier in the day.
He immediately got minutes due to the Suns still being down every big on the roster but Cheick Diallo due to injury, and Bolden was rewarded for his play by closing the game over the starter Diallo.
He had six points, seven rebounds, a steal and two blocks in 26 minutes.
“He played well. That’s an amazing job of getting the callup same day and you get actual minutes,” Booker said. “Congratulations to him for the callup and the opportunity and taking advantage of that. That’s not an easy task to come into live NBA action on your first day up.”
Williams also shouted out his bench backcourt duo of Elie Okobo and Jevon Carter that combined for 20 points, four rebounds, five assists and a steal.
“Elie was great tonight,” he said. “He and JC brought an energy and a dog to the game that we needed.”
On the Golden State side, it would be unfair to go without mentioning the great play of Marquese Chriss. The former top 10 pick by the Suns was the Warriors’ best player Wednesday night with 18 points, 12 rebounds, three assists and three blocks.
Booker is happy for his former teammate and sees a different person.
“Marquese is somebody that I’m proud of in signing his deal and job security,” he said. “You can tell on his face, man, he’s a lot happier in this situation and he’s been playing very, very well of late.”
Booker blocked Chriss late, who to be fair got Booker earlier in the night, and Booker made sure to be over the top and let Chriss know about it like any of us would if we got our friend like that.
The refs, shockingly, weren’t catching onto the friendly vibe there and gave Booker a technical foul.
“The refs didn’t understand I guess that’s why they called a tech but I’m trying to have fun out there, find happiness in this league,” Booker said with what I detect as a slight bit of sarcasm.
“I laughed at him, and it was warranted and I’m glad he did it,” Chriss said of his buddy. “It was funny to me.”
The Suns now enter the All-Star break and do so with their 22nd win of the season, eyeing a potential double-digit improvement over last year.
That, however, is not where everyone’s mind is at, as referenced at the top.
“I think it’s about time this organization had an All-Star,” Williams said. “It’s been a minute, but who better to represent us than Devin.”
A new version of a federal environmental review for the proposed Pebble mine has angered the mine’s opponents and encouraged its developer.
The Army Corps of Engineers will use the final review to decide whether to give the controversial mine a key permit it needs before it can be built.
The report could foreshadow what’s to come.
Tom Collier, chief executive of developer Pebble Limited Partnership, is pleased. He said the report’s release, and its major conclusions, indicate the company will see a decision in its favor by mid-2020.
Pebble opponents that have seen it are not happy. They say the proposed copper and gold mine in Southwest Alaska will threaten the Bristol Bay region’s valuable salmon fishery, and they will go court to stop it.
Very little has changed between the draft environmental review issued last year and the preliminary final review, said Alannah Hurley with the United Tribes of Bristol Bay, representing 15 tribes from the region.
The Corps still has not analyzed a tailings dam failure, she said.
“That’s outrageous,” she said. “That’s one of our biggest concerns, when you store toxic waste at the headwaters of the last great wild sockeye salmon fisheries on earth."
She said groups will sue to stop the mine. The United Tribes of Bristol Bay and other anti-Pebble groups have already sued the EPA to try to reestablish one roadblock against the mine.
John Budnik, a Corps spokesman, said there have been several revisions to the draft report. He said it addresses three spill scenarios.
But the report says the Corps did not model the effect of an “extremely unlikely” catastrophic failure of a tailings dam, like what occurred at the Mount Polley mine in Canada in 2014. Public commenters had requested such a review. Tailings are a mine’s finely ground waste material.
The report says the Corps determined that modeling for such an event was “inappropriate.“ Pebble has proposed a design with “water-reduction measures” for the tailings, such as drainage and air flow. The facility would have less chance of failure compared to a breach of “water-inundated tailings,” such as at the Mount Polley mine, the report says.
"The bulk (tailings storage facility) would remain in place in perpetuity in ‘dry’ closure, further reducing the long-term spill risk,” the report says.
Commercial Fishermen for Bristol Bay also said the preliminary final report is insufficient.
“The preliminary final EIS is more of the same; this administration’s priority is a purely political process that completely ignores well-documented science and the voices of Alaskans," said Katherine Carscallen, director of the fishermen’s group, in a statement.
She said the report severely underestimates the risks of the mine to salmon and other resources.
Collier with Pebble said Tuesday it’s “absolutely false" to say there have been only small changes to the preliminary final document. The Corps has held numerous meetings and delayed a final decision to address concerns with the draft report, he said.
Also, Pebble has changed the design of the proposed port facility and roads and bridges to reduce impacts to waters and wetlands, as spelled out a compensatory mitigation plan it has submitted to the Corps, he said.
It has proposed plans to help protect waters in the region, including improving wastewater management in three communities and taking steps to improve salmon passage in 8.5 miles of streams.
The Corps’ major conclusions remain the same, Collier said. The report shows the mine would not hurt the Bristol Bay salmon fishery, he said.
He pointed to a section on commercial fishing. It says that under normal operations, development alternatives would “not be expected to have a measurable effect on fish numbers and result in long-term changes to the health of the commercial fisheries in Bristol Bay."
Collier pointed out a section on subsistence that says, “Overall, impacts to fish and wildlife would not be expected to impact harvest levels, because no population-level decrease in resources would be anticipated."
Carscallen, with the fishing group, said Collier is wrong to say there won’t be harm to the fishery, The report says the development’s footprint will harm 100 miles of salmon stream, she said.
The report indicates the final decision will be in Pebble’s favor, Collier said.
“That’s the only conclusion you can reach,” he said.
If there’s a company that knows how to keep unscripted TV hits on the air for the long haul, it’s Bunim/Murray Productions.
Maybe that comes with instilling franchises like “The Real World” and “The Challenge” with the staying power to last for more than three decades. But even Bunim/Murray CEO Gil Goldschein will admit that when it comes to what may be his biggest hit of all, E!’s “Keeping Up With the Kardashians,” he is somewhat mystified as to how America’s most famous family has managed to keep their crazy train on the tracks for 18 seasons and counting, but he thinks it boils down to a simple secret.
“From a family perspective, one wouldn’t think with, especially with the level of celebrity and success they’re now at, no, I would not have thought it would go on as long as it has,” Goldschein says on the latest episode of the Variety podcast “Strictly Business.” “But the key to success is, as long as they continue to remain open about their lives, people will continue to watch.”
Goldschein also opens up about the challenge Bunim/Murray faced getting Kardashians to catch on outside the U.S., as well as the trends shaping the reality-TV space, where he’s led the company in various capacities over the past decade as part of a larger unscripted production powerhouse, Banijay Group.
“Strictly Business” is Variety’s weekly podcast featuring conversations with industry leaders about the business of entertainment. Past episodes include conversations with Discovery CEO David Zaslav and Dana Walden, co-head of 20th Century Fox Television and Fox Television Group. A new episode debuts each Wednesday and can be downloaded on iTunes, Spotify, Google Play, Stitcher and SoundCloud.
Netflix’s loose adaptation of Joe Hill and Gabriel Rodriguez’s beloved comic-book series Locke & Key has had fun all season with the magical keys that keep dropping into the lives of its main characters. The arrival of a new key into the hands of the Locke children can fundamentally shift what it is they’re facing and their ability to deal with it, so understanding them is key (sorry) to unlocking (sorry again) the show’s plot. Since it can be a little tough to keep track of all of the keys, where you first saw them, and what they do over the course of the first season’s ten episodes, allow us to guide the way with a chronological look at the dozen keys we’ve seen so far. As readers know, some of these are straight out of the books, while others are inventions of the show.
Note: Major spoilers for the first season of Locke & Key lie ahead.
There’s a reason this was the first key introduced. Arguably the most powerful key in the world of the show, the Anywhere Key was hidden in a bracelet belonging to Kinsey Locke until her brother Bode Locke dismantled it and learned what it can do. When the Anywhere Key is inserted into a door, that door can then be opened to anywhere in the world. Bode uses it to go to the Matheson ice-cream parlor that Scot works at, but the lady in the well — who will later and heretofore in this piece be referred to as Dodge — steals it, using it to travel the globe and do things like get a new outfit, choke someone to death, and help free Sam Lesser, the man who murdered Rendell Locke. It’s really an amazing key, one that can facilitate quick escapes and seriously shorten travel times. You’d never have to commute to work again!
This one is a reasonably clever way to introduce viewers to this show’s world of magic, while also revealing that adults don’t remember the same things that kids do. When it’s inserted into a mirror, the reflection in that mirror comes to life, beckoning the person to come inside. Nina Locke follows her dark alter ego into the mirror world and nearly gets stuck there. Tyler Locke has to tie a rope around his waist and go after mom, pulling her out just in time. Importantly, the Locke kids are startled when mom has no memory of the entire affair until she falls off the wagon and the world of key magic comes flooding back to her, only to disappear again when she’s not drinking gin.
Technically this key doesn’t really play a role in the action in Matheson until episode four, but we do spot it first in the prologue when Mark, one of the Keepers of the Keys, uses it to self-immolate, his house bursting into flames. The power here is pretty simple — no keyhole or door or cabinet needed. Strike the key anywhere, and what you strike bursts into flames. Rather than just give Sam Lesser the Anywhere Key and letting him walk out of prison, Dodge gives him the Matchstick Key, which she obtains from a kid outside Mark’s house. Not only does Sam use it to escape, but it’s a major player in the endgame of the season when Bode uses it to kill Dodge. Or at least, he thinks he does.
One of the most essential keys in the narrative of season one is also one of the book’s most iconic: a key with a head on top of it. It literally allows access into someone’s mind, and is used primarily on the show to provide exposition through memories. The design of each person’s head is different, with young Bode Locke’s head organized like an arcade and Kinsey Locke’s looking more like a mall. Poor Erin Voss is stuck in her own head after using the Head Key, and other characters use the item often to push the plot forward, including Sam Lesser and Ellie Whedon. It’s an essential key because Dodge needs it to find the location of the Omega Key, learning from Erin that Rendell Locke used the Head Key to hide the Omega Key in his own consciousness.
Another key that’s iconic for fans of the source is the Ghost Key, which has to be used on a very specific door in Key House. Bode Locke discovers it, puts it in the door, and walks through, becoming a ghostly entity that can then travel the grounds; his body looks like a sock without a foot in it back in the house. It allows Bode to spy on people, and ultimately leads to the demise of Sam Lesser, who goes through the door unknowingly, only to have it close behind him. We can safely presume that the ghost of poor Sam is still flying high above Key House, looking sad.
Slightly different than in the source, this key seems at first to just start up a music box, but the Locke kids soon realize its incredible power when Kinsey tells Tyler to shut his mouth and he literally can’t open it again. It’s a key that allows people to turn into puppeteers, and Kinsey, Scot, and Gabe do so at school, making the bully Eden into their plaything. It’s probably a key that we haven’t seen the last of, given its remarkable power to force people to do whatever its wielder dictates. It might have come in handy during the season’s final showdown.
A key with a flower on it raises memory jars on the grounds of Key House, memories that belonged once to Duncan Locke, Rendell’s brother. Watching these memories allow the Locke kids to understand what happened when their dad was young, but also explain why Duncan gets hazy when he’s asked about those days. In one of the season’s creepiest moments, Duncan appears to break when watching a memory that should be in his head but is in his hands.
A crucial key narratively, the Identity Key is actually first spotted in one of the memory jars that Kinsey finds. It later plays a major role in the endgame of the season, not only as Dodge uses it to transform between the Well Lady and Lucas, but in the final cliffhanger, where it’s revealed that the Identity Key was used on Ellie Whedon to make her look like the enemy of the Lockes. Kinsey, Tyler, and their friends threw what they thought was the entity from the well house through the Black Door, but it was really Ellie, courtesy of the Identity Key. The final episode also reveals that the entity has been using this key all season to look like Gabe and get closer to Kinsey. Why bother doing that? What did it really get Dodge other than information about the Lockes? Maybe we’ll find out more next season.
At first, this key is kind of a fake-out, as Bode Locke thinks that it just opens an old cabinet in the Key House kitchen. It’s kind of true, but that cabinet is magical. If you put something broken in it, it comes out fixed, although Nina Locke learns that it will not bring people back from the dead. That’s probably for the best.
The Omega Key has been the source of most of the problems in this story. The One Ring of Locke & Key is first mentioned in episode eight and plays a major role in what’s really a two-part season finale. It turns out that the original Keepers of the Keys found the Omega Key and opened the Black Door, which is what released the entity that possessed Lucas and was trapped in the well. It’s also what Dodge wants more than anything: to return to that door and open it with the Omega Key. Maybe next season, although the Lockes and their pals use the Omega Key to essentially damn Ellie Whedon to eternal purgatory, throwing her body through the portal because they think it’s Dodge.
As she’s explaining what happened to the Lockes, Ellie Whedon mentions that she took this one after the Keepers of the Keys split them up, and that it can bring people back. She used the Echo Key at the well house to resurrect Lucas, but it was the entity that possessed her lost love instead.
The Crown of Shadows is a magical piece of headgear that allows its wearer to control Dementor-like creatures who look like shadows. Of course, the crown can’t just be put on, it needs a key to activate it. Everything that matters in this world needs a key.
(Bloomberg Opinion) -- “American carnage” was at the heart of Donald Trump’s successful 2016 presidential campaign. This was particularly true in hard-hit swing states, which he alluded to in his inaugural address when he described “rusted-out factories scattered like tombstones across the landscape of our nation.”
Now he is saying that “the years of economic decay are over” and heralding “the great American comeback.” Will the new rhetoric work in the crucial battleground states as the president seeks re-election?
Recall that Trump won the White House with 78,000 total votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The performance of wages in those states likely made voters receptive to his message of American carnage. According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, average weekly wages fell by 1.5%, 2.3% and 2.1% in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in the fourth quarter of 2016 relative to the same period the year before. Wages also fell over that period in other key election states: Florida, Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire and North Carolina.
It’s hard to predict how wages will perform when the election occurs in the fourth quarter of 2020. But wages have been growing in all those states, and my bet is that the trend continues. This suggests that in the places that matter, the president may be right to pivot from “carnage” to “comeback.”
Other indicators back up Trump’s new strategy, including employment and housing prices. In the fourth quarter of 2018, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin experienced employment growth of 1%, 1.1% and 0.6%, respectively, over the same period the year before.
According to my colleagues in the AEI Housing Center, house prices were appreciating at a faster rate in 2019 than in 2016 for four of the 10 states that were the closest contests in the last presidential election. While Michigan and Florida are among the underperformers in this group, annual house prices increases in 2019 were 54% faster in Pennsylvania and 3% faster in Wisconsin than in 2016. This makes it more difficult for first-time home buyers, but it is a good thing for homeowners, and suggests that overall economic conditions in these states are improving.
Nationwide, a recent Gallup poll reports that Americans’ confidence in the economy is at a two-decade high. By contrast, confidence was trending down in 2016, during Trump’s “American carnage” phase, with 53% saying the economy was getting worse and 38% reporting that it was getting better.
In the most recent Gallup survey, only 10% of respondents mentioned the economy when asked about the most important problem facing the U.S. today. This is also at a two-decade low. During the 2016 election, the share of respondents mentioning the economy was about double today’s level.
And more than two-thirds of respondents report that now is a good time to find a quality job. In November 2016, only 43% said that, while 53% said it was a bad time.
More broadly, Americans seem content. Nine in 10 report being satisfied with how their personal lives are going — the highest percentage on record in the four decades Gallup has been asking this question.
The public is right to feel good about the economy. Unemployment is at a half-century low. A composite index from economists at Goldman Sachs suggests wages are growing at a 3.4 percent annual rate, and there are more job openings than unemployed workers.
The economy is delivering for the working-class voters Trump needs. Weekly earnings for those in the bottom 10% have grown over one-third faster than they have grown for workers in the middle. The unemployment rate for people without a high school diploma is further below its long-term average than the rate for college graduates is below its typical level. Wages for non-supervisory workers have been growing faster than average wages overall since last February.
Of course, Trump’s 2016 rhetoric wildly overstated the economic challenges facing the country. Much of his appeal — during the last campaign and during his time as president — has been based on his ability to play to people's anxieties and fears.
This raises important questions: Even if “it’s morning again in America” is the right message for the 2020 swing states and for the nation as a whole, is Trump the right messenger? Will his base respond to this new tone and disposition?
His re-election chances may depend on the answers.
(Disclaimer: Michael Bloomberg is also seeking the Democratic presidential nomination. He is the founder and majority owner of Bloomberg LP, the parent company of Bloomberg News.)
To contact the author of this story: Michael R. Strain at mstrain4@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Katy Roberts at kroberts29@bloomberg.net
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg LP and its owners.
Michael R. Strain is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He is director of economic policy studies and resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. He is the editor of “The U.S. Labor Market: Questions and Challenges for Public Policy.”
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