You may have watched the San Francisco 49ers’ 37-8 rout of the Green Bay Packers on Nov. 24. That result continues to loom large over betting choices in Sunday’s rematch for the NFC Championship.
How can you bet the Packers +7¹/₂ when they were so badly outclassed in that first meeting? Aaron Rodgers posted a ridiculous 23-37-0-81 net passing line. The offense was 1-of-15 on third-down tries.
A review of regular-season performance in our key indicator stats seems to confirm that the Packers aren’t championship ready:
San Francisco (-7¹/₂) vs. Green Bay, 6:40 p.m., Fox)
Green Bay: 18th offense, 18th defense, 26th schedule, plus-12 turnover margin
San Francisco: fourth offense, second defense, 17th schedule, plus-4 turnover margin
Green Bay ranked roughly league average on both sides of the ball despite playing a soft schedule. That’s a team you’re going to ask to win and cover on the road in January against the top seed in a conference?
The problem with auto-betting the 49ers is that their defense drifted back to normalcy (or worse) in the latter stages of the season. December opponents scored 46 (Saints), 29 (Falcons), 31 (Rams) and 21 (Seahawks). Rodgers probably isn’t facing the second-best defense in pro football this time around.
It’s not much of a simplification to say that pundits emphasizing the first meeting love San Francisco laying a manageable number … and pundits emphasizing the last month of the season love the Packers to at least stay within a touchdown.
Let’s see if we can go beyond the obvious:
- The case for San Francisco: A bye week may have helped the defense find its mojo. Last weekend’s 27-10 domination of Minnesota looked a lot like the regular-season rout of the Packers. The 49ers held the Vikings to 147 total yards on 3.3 yards per play (compared to 198 and 2.8 for the Packers). Minnesota converted just 2 of 12 third-down tries. It’s much easier to cover spreads of a touchdown or more if the opponent is going to score 10 points or fewer. Green Bay’s statistical dead heat with Seattle last week seemed to confirm its lack of championship readiness.
- The case for Green Bay: It’s worth noting that Green Bay went 4-1 straight up and against the spread in its five other games vs. teams that reached the playoffs. Rodgers is an experienced vet likely to figure out a way to move the ball and get something on the board with so much at stake. The onus is on the Packers to make adjustments from their prior loss. San Francisco may fall into the trap of assuming what worked last time will continue to work. Or, it may find that having one week off wasn’t enough to inspire two great weeks of defense.
Bettors have an obvious question to answer: Will Rodgers score enough on the 49ers defense to get the money? Answer that, and the pick emphatically makes itself.
"Key" - Google News
January 20, 2020 at 02:31AM
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Key betting stats show Packers aren't championship ready - New York Post
"Key" - Google News
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