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Friday, December 6, 2019

NFL Week 14: Key games with playoff implications, stats that stand out and everything to know - CBS Sports

Welcome to Week 14 of the 2019 NFL season! We've got a packed slate for you all this week, complete with several marquee games. 

The Cowboys and Bears got things started for us on Thursday evening, with Chicago prevailing and sending the Cowboys to their third consecutive defeat. Dallas maintains a half-game lead in the NFC East and will keep that lead through Week 14 even if the Eagles win because they hold the tiebreaker, but they look like a broken team at the moment. Chicago ran its record up to 7-6 and moved closer in both the wild card and NFC North races.

There's a whole lot more in store for football fans this weekend. Let's dig in.

Who's In

Teams who have clinched a playoff spot and/or division title are denoted with ^ symbol.

AFC: Ravens (10-2), Patriots (10-2), Texans (8-4), Chiefs (8-4), Bills (9-3), Steelers (7-5)

NFC: Saints^ (10-2), Seahawks (10-2), Packers (9-3), Cowboys (6-7), 49ers (10-2), Vikings (8-4) 

Which teams will cover the spread in Week 14? Pete Prisco, R.J. White and Will Brinson break down their picks for every game on the Pick Six Podcast, listen below and subscribe here for daily NFL goodness.

Who's Out

Teams eliminated from playoff contention are denoted with an asterisk.

AFC: Titans (7-5), Raiders (6-6), Colts (6-6), Browns (5-7), Jaguars (4-8), Broncos (4-8), Chargers (4-8), Dolphins* (3-9), Bengals* (1-11)

NFC: Rams (7-5), Bears (7-6), Buccaneers (5-7), Eagles (5-7), Panthers (5-7), Lions* (3-8-1), Cardinals* (3-8-1), Falcons* (3-9), Washington (3-9), Giants* (2-10)

Week 13 Games With Playoff Implications

Week 13 features three games where both teams currently occupy playoff spots. 

  • Ravens at Bills, 1 p.m. ET
  • 49ers at Saints, 1 p.m. ET
  • Chiefs at Patriots, 4:25 p.m. ET

The Ravens travel to Buffalo in the early afternoon slate, putting their newly-acquired No. 1 seed on the line. Buffalo has a two-game lead over all other contenders for the No. 5 slot but needs to keep winning to keep pace with the Patriots in the AFC East. Elsewhere at 1 p.m. the 49ers head to New Orleans to take on the Saints, looking to jump back into the race for a bye in the NFC. They'll need some help elsewhere because the Seahawks currently hold the tiebreaker over San Francisco. The late afternoon slate brings us a rematch of last year's AFC title game, with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs heading to Gillette Stadium to battle the Patriots. 

Week 14 also features two games where both teams are within one game of a playoff spot.

  • Titans at Raiders, 4:25 p.m. ET
  • Seahawks at Rams, 8:20 p.m. ET (SNF)

Tennessee is a game back of Houston in the AFC South, and currently in possession of the No. 7 seed despite having the same record as the Steelers, due to the tiebreaker. The Titans have a couple of different paths to get into the postseason, while the Raiders will likely need to take one of the wild card spots to get in, being that they are two games back of the Chiefs. Seattle is the new leader in the NFC West by virtue of the tiebreaker and can keep a hold on that lead by beating the Rams on Sunday night. If they lose, the 49ers could move back into first place, so long as they beat the Saints earlier in the day. A win by the Rams would get them back into position to make a run at one of the wild card spots. 

Stats to Know

  • Colts at Buccaneers, 1 p.m. ET

The Bucs throw more vertical passes than almost any team in the league. Their 70 passes that have traveled at least 20 yards in the air, per Sports Info Solutions, are second-most in the NFL. The Colts, meanwhile, have allowed only 17 completions on such passes all season. Jameis Winston has thrown four touchdowns and five interceptions on those throws, so there could be opportunities for the Colts to force some takeaways in this game.

  • Ravens at Bills, 1 p.m. ET

According to Football Outsiders, the Ravens have a rush offense DVOA of 25.4 percent so far this season. (Essentially, their running game is 25 percent better than that of the average NFL team.) The last team to surpass that mark in any season was the 2014 Seahawks, who led the league with a 29.0 percent rush offense DVOA. The next-closest team to this year's Ravens (the Cardinals) is at only 12.5 percent, so the gap between them and the rest of the league is pretty sizable. The Bills, with their 22nd-ranked run defense, typically would prefer that teams run on them rather than pass, but that's dangerous against Baltimore. 

  • Lions at Vikings, 1 p.m. ET

Dalvin Cook is having a spectacular season, but after last week's shoulder injury, there's reason to think the Vikings should ease up on his workload a bit. Cook missed 17 of his first 32 career games due to injury but has played in all 12 of Minnesota's contests this season. He already has more carries this year (223) than his first two years combined (207), and he has nearly as many catches (48 vs. 51) as well. Cook's 18.6 carries per game average is not enormous, but a player with 207 career carries suddenly jumping to a 16-game pace of 300 carries is a pretty big bump. Alexander Mattison looks like a good player, and could easily work in for a few more carries per week if the Vikes want to let up on the throttle a bit. 

  • Washington at Packers, 1 p.m. ET

With Davante Adams out from Week 5 through Week 8, Aaron Jones was targeted 27 times by Aaron Rodgers, hauling in 22 receptions for 280 yards and three touchdowns. Since Adams' return in Week 9, Jones has five catches for 12 yards on just 10 targets. The Packers are only 2-2 in those four games, and it feels a whole lot like they need to get back to getting Jones the ball more often, particularly in the passing game. 

  • Broncos at Texans, 1 p.m. ET

The Texans have played six games this season against teams currently ranked inside the top 10 in Football Outsiders' pass defense DVOA. In those games, Deshaun Watson is 128 of 190 (67.4 percent) for 1,557 yards (8.2 per attempt), 10 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. In six games against all other teams, Watson is 139 of 196 (70.9 percent) for 1,576 yards (8.0 per attempt), 13 touchdowns, and no interceptions. The Broncos do not have one of the NFL's top-10 pass defenses by DVOA.

  • 49ers at Saints, 1 p.m. ET

The 49ers ran their record to 8-0 to begin the season, working against one of the NFL's softest schedules during that time. Their eight opponents during that stretch currently have a record of 36-59-1, which is the equivalent of playing a six-win team every week. The schedule over the second half of the season is considerably tougher, with a group of teams that currently have a record of 63-32-1, which is the equivalent of playing a 10.5-win team every week. The Niners have managed a 2-2 record in the first four games of that stretch. They'll likely have to go 3-1 or better to get themselves a first-round bye, and this game against the Saints could be incredibly important for home-field advantage in the postseason.

  • Bengals at Browns, 1 p.m. ET

Remember A.J. Green? He made the Pro Bowl in each of his first seven seasons, racking up 556 catches for 8,213 yards and 57 touchdowns during that time. He was fun. Just saying. 

We probably haven't talked enough about the complete collapse of the Panthers' run defense collapse, which presumably played a role in Ron Rivera's firing this week. There have only been two games this season where Carolina's opponent has not run for at least 100 yards, and those two games were against the Buccaneers, and the Falcons without Devonta Freeman. Washington racked up 248 yards on the ground last week. Atlanta has not had the most imposing ground game this season but perhaps Freeman can finally get himself untracked against a team that is just having a world of trouble stopping the ball.

DeVante Parker is absolutely balling of late. Ryan Fitzpatrick was inserted back into the lineup back in Week 7 against Buffalo, and since then Parker has 40 catches for 625 yards and four touchdowns. Those 40 catches are fifth-most in the NFL during that time, while the 625 yards are third and the four touchdowns sixth. Among the 81 players with at least 20 grabs during that time, Parker's 15.4 yards per reception ranks 12th. Now he gets a Jets secondary that hemorrhages yards to everybody. 

  • Chargers at Jaguars, 4:05 p.m. ET

Which of these three quarterbacks would you rather have?

  1. 384-593, 4,579 yards, 23 TD, 20 INT, 86.9 Rtg
  2. 308-468, 2,944 yards, 12 TD, 8 INT, 84.6 Rtg
  3. 326-534, 3,891 yards, 22 TD, 8 INT, 91.1 Rtg

Those three stat lines are the full-season paces of Philip Rivers (1), Nick Foles (2), and Gardner Minshew (3) based on their play this year. That's definitely not a sentence you thought you'd read when this season started.

  • Chiefs at Patriots, 4:25 p.m. ET

The Bill Belichick-led Patriots have played against an Andy Reid-coached team nine times -- six in the regular season and three in the playoffs. New England is 7-2 all-time against Reid, and 3-0 in the postseason. The series began with Reid's team consistently struggling to score against Belichick's defenses (79 combined points in the first four games) but since he's been in Kansas City, the Chiefs have for the most part been able to dent the scoreboard, with totals of 41, 20, 42, 40, and 31 against the Pats. New England has still managed to win three of those five games, but this year's Patriots offense doesn't have that kind of firepower. The defense is much better, though, so they might have a better shot at stopping Patrick Mahomes and company.

  • Titans at Raiders, 4:25 p.m. ET

Josh Jacobs reportedly has a fractured shoulder and may not play in this game, but he's looked quite good during his rookie season. In fact, his numbers this year look remarkably similar to those Derrick Henry posted last year. Jacobs has carried 218 times for 1,061 yards (4.9 per carry) and seven scores, adding 18 catches on 24 targets, for another 146 yards. Last year, Henry carried 215 times for 1,059 yards (4.8 per carry) and 12 touchdowns, adding 15 catches for 99 yards on 18 targets. If Jacobs can play next year like Henry has this year, the Raiders will be pretty happy.  

  • Steelers at Cardinals, 4:25 p.m. ET

The Steelers defense will provide Kyler Murray with one of his toughest tests yet. He was able to find a decent amount of success against the tough 49ers defense in recent weeks, but he sputtered last week against the Rams, going just 19 of 34 for 163 yards and an interception. The Steelers have 15 interceptions this season, second-most in the NFL. If Murray can avoid the turnovers, that's a pretty good sign. 

  • Seahawks at Rams, 8:20 p.m. ET (SNF)

The Seahawks moved into essentially a full-on timeshare in the backfield last week, with Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny splitting snaps and touches just about equally. Carson was on the field for 52 percent of snaps, and touched the ball 24 times. Penny was out there for 47 percent of snaps and got 16 touches. Meanwhile, the Rams are going in the opposite direction. Todd Gurley was being frequently spelled by Malcolm Brown for much of the season, but he was up over 90 percent of the snaps in the two games before last week, when the Rams blew out the Cardinals and he got to take a rest down the stretch. 

  • Giants at Eagles, 8:15 p.m. ET (MNF)

Eli Manning is back! His career record entering this game is 116-116, which is pretty poetic. Manning is just 10-20 against the Eagles in his career, so he'll have to overcome some history to get himself back over .500. 

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NFL Week 14: Key games with playoff implications, stats that stand out and everything to know - CBS Sports
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